Uganda’s Economic Growth Accelerates with Oil Production on Horizon

Corporate editorUpdated 3 weeks Ago1 Mins read126

Uganda’s economic growth is on a clear upward trajectory, with the government projecting accelerated growth driven by improving macroeconomic conditions and the anticipated start of oil production.

While meeting the Parliament of Uganda Budget Committee this week, the Minister of State for General Duties, Henry Musasizi, outlined an optimistic economic outlook for the coming financial years. He revealed that economic growth is expected to rise to 7 per cent in the Financial Year 2025/26, up from 6.3 per cent recorded in Financial Year 2024/25, reflecting strengthening economic activity across key sectors.

Accompanied by the technical team from the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (Uganda), Musasizi emphasised that Uganda’s growth trajectory is expected to significantly strengthen once oil production begins later this year. The commencement of petroleum production is projected to trigger double-digit growth, marking a transformative phase for the economy.

Oil Production Drives Double-Digit Expansion

Looking further ahead, the government projects GDP growth to reach 10.4 per cent in Financial Year 2026/27, with the size of the economy expanding to approximately USD 80.8 billion (about Shs 291.4 trillion). This rapid economic growth is expected to be driven by oil revenues, increased investment inflows, and broader industrial activity linked to the energy sector.

Musasizi further informed the Budget Committee that by the end of June 2026, Uganda’s economy is projected to grow to USD 68.4 billion (Shs 251.4 trillion). In purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, this translates to an estimated USD 194.2 billion, reflecting stronger domestic consumption capacity and improved economic output.

GDP Per Capita Hits $1,399 Milestone

On the income side, GDP per capita is projected to rise to USD 1,399 (approximately Shs 5.03 million) in the current financial year, signalling gradual improvements in average household income levels.

The projections underscore Uganda’s growing confidence in its long-term economic outlook, with oil development positioned as a key catalyst for structural transformation, fiscal expansion, and increased global competitiveness. If achieved, these milestones could mark one of the most significant economic shifts in Uganda’s modern history, reshaping its investment landscape and development trajectory over the next decade.